Israel Doesn't Plan On Waiting Until After The Election To Start World War 3

UPDATE: There is some controversy over the leaked document, of which a nearly identical copy had been posted on another site 4 days prior. Moon of Alabama contend that Silverstein has been duped.(h/t traveller, thanks!)

Silverstein replies briefly in an update to this posting.

Tikun Olam editor Richard Silverstein has been reporting on the horrendous nature of the Netanyahu regime for a long time now, but his thorn is now lodged deep in Bibi's paw.

From Tuesday comes the following:

Now comes even more an even deluded than normal set of declarations (Hebrew) concerning relations with the U.S. regarding Iran. The new thinking is that if the U.S. will publicly commit to a military attack against Iran in a speech to the next UN General Assembly meeting in the fall (which just so happens to fall on the eve of Yom Kippur), then Israel won’t attack Iran before the November election:

Bibi Netanyahu and Ehud Barak expect Barak Obama to declare that the U.S. would take military actions to stop Iran’s nuclear program at the UN General Assembly fall session or any other public forum before that date. This presidential commitment would prevent an Israeli attack before the November elections. Though neither the foreign ministry or prime minister’s offices would confirm this, other sources say preliminary efforts have begun with U.S. ambassador to the UN Susan Rice, who is extremely close to Obama, to coordinate such developments.


…According to a senior official in Jerusalem, if Obama does say the words Israel expects to hear, this would be a decisive contribution toward restoring Israel’s level of trust in the U.S.



It appears that Israel has had a major accident and a severe case of amnesia. Instead of being a small country in the Middle East, Israel (or its leaders) appear to believe they are Obama’s Brain . All they have to do is propose action in Israel’s interest and it’s Obama’s obligation to assent. Or in another metaphor, Obama is a mere robot and Bibi is Dr. Frankenstein his creator and programmer. That appears to be something close to the relationship Sheldon Adelson has with Mitt Romney, so I suppose it isn’t too far-fetched that Bibi believes he could enjoy the same control of Obama.

On Wednesday, Silverstein published the Iran attack plan, leaked to him by a trusted IDF source.

The Israeli attack will open with a coordinated strike, including an unprecedented cyber-attack which will totally paralyze the Iranian regime and its ability to know what is happening within its borders. The internet, telephones, radio and television, communications satellites, and fiber optic cables leading to and from critical installations—including underground missile bases at Khorramabad and Isfahan—will be taken out of action. The electrical grid throughout Iran will be paralyzed and transformer stations will absorb severe damage from carbon fiber munitions which are finer than a human hair, causing electrical short circuits whose repair requires their complete removal. This would be a Sisyphean task in light of cluster munitions which would be dropped, some time-delayed and some remote-activated through the use of a satellite signal.


A barrage of tens of ballistic missiles would be launched from Israel toward Iran. 300km ballistic missiles would be launched from Israeli submarines in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf. The missiles would not be armed with unconventional warheads [WMD], but rather with high-explosive ordnance equipped with reinforced tips designed specially to penetrate hardened targets.


The missiles will strike their targets—some exploding above ground like those striking the nuclear reactor at Arak–which is intended to produce plutonium and tritium—and the nearby heavy water production facility; the nuclear fuel production facilities at Isfahan and facilities for enriching uranium-hexaflouride. Others would explode under-ground, as at the Fordo facility.


A barrage of hundreds of cruise missiles will pound command and control systems, research and development facilities, and the residences of senior personnel in the nuclear and missile development apparatus. Intelligence gathered over years will be utilized to completely decapitate Iran’s professional and command ranks in these fields.


After the first wave of attacks, which will be timed to the second, the “Blue and White” radar satellite, whose systems enable us to perform an evaluation of the level of damage done to the various targets, will pass over Iran. Only after rapidly decrypting the satellite’s data, will the information be transferred directly to war planes making their way covertly toward Iran. These IAF planes will be armed with electronic warfare gear previously unknown to the wider public, not even revealed to our U.S. ally. This equipment will render Israeli aircraft invisible. Those Israeli war planes which participate in the attack will damage a short-list of targets which require further assault.


Among the targets approved for attack—Shihab 3 and Sejil ballistic missile silos, storage tanks for chemical components of rocket fuel, industrial facilities for producing missile control systems, centrifuge production plants and more.

Mr. Silverstein's analysis is well worth your time to read.

Further reading:

BBC's interview with Silverstein

Israel Poised to Launch Pre-U.S. Election Attack on Iran, an interview with Leah Bolger of Veterans for Peace

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Stephen Walt has a different take.

type1error's picture

He thinks that Israel won't attack because they can't do it alone. So why all the tough guy talk?

This position makes so much sense that you can be sure it will be rejected by AIPAC and the other hardliners who believe that Iran cannot be permitted even the theoretical capacity to produce a weapon at some unspecified time down the road. Together with the Netyanyahu government, these groups want to keep ramping up the war talk in order to slowly paint the United States into a corner. The reason is simple: Israel does not have a strategically meaningful military option of its own, because the IAF cannot do enough damage to Iran's nuclear facilities to end its program once and for all. To prevent any sort of Iranian nuclear capacity, therefore, requires the United States to take the lead in enforcing sanctions and if necessary, to fight another war.

And as Jodi Rudoren reveals in an important New York Times piece today, Israel's leaders understand that fact perfectly well. Based on interviews with a former national security advisor Uzi Dayan, she reports that PM Netanyahu and Defense Minister Barak "had not yet decided to attack Iran's nuclear facilities and could be dissuaded from a strike if President Obama approved stricter sanctions and publicly confirmed his willingness to use military force" (my emphasis). She continues: "Mr. Dayan's assessment seems to buttress the theory that the collective saber rattling is part of a campaign to pressure the Obama administration and the international community, rather than an indication of the imminence of an Israeli strike."

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"painting into a corner"

geomoo's picture

What is the dynamic that could paint the U.S. into a corner? It's the deadly one that to be elected in the U.S., a candidate must embrace death and destruction with sufficient fervor, must express appropriate disdain for lovers of peace and humble adherence to the rule of law; the successful candidate and elected politician will strut and boast, threaten and lecture, coddle merchants of death while marginalizing thoughtful people motivated to create the optimal society for humans. In short, the paint is a delusion and the corner does not exist. There are options for diplomacy and options for peaceful resolution.

As to the relationship between Israel and the U.S., I expect there is a lot more leverage and behind-the-scenes complicity than we are likely to know about. I doubt things are anything like as simple as a few politicians making public maneuvers. The most likely scenario is that this is all being choreographed with a certain pre-determined goal in mind; how the paranoid leaders reach that goal is more theater than substance--this is my guess.

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Insane.

geomoo's picture

They describe this destruction with no qualms while condemning Iran for its attempts at weapon building. It's not a fucking video game. If this comes to pass, and it well might, we will see millions of refugees, the rise of the sort of chaos and violence seen today in Iraq, and the destruction of yet another of the world's ancient cultures. The crimes being committed today are as egregious as the Roman destruction of the Library of Alexandria. When will people wake up and understand that militarism and war-mongering are mortal enemies of civilization, that soldiers are not fit guardians of the dignity of humans.

I tried, but I fail to adequately express my horror and disgust. The insanity seems to be escalating, as usually occurs with addiction.

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Axis of Evil

Big Al's picture

How long are these chickenshits going to talk about it? Obviously, the talk is for a purpose, they do most everything for a purpose. We and Israel are effectively at war with Iran right now because of the illegal and unjust sanctions and covert activities that were authorized under Bush and continue. It's hard to prognosticate anymore on this, but ignoring the possibilities and dangers is not an option. We'll see what Obama says during the general and the debates and I think that will be the time to raise holy hell, not just about what he'll say about Iran, but AFghanistan and the war on terror. Anything he says is going to be bullshit and easy pickings.

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Chipmo, this is another propaganda effort from Isreal

traveler's picture

Check out the details from Moon of Alabama 16 August 2012 "Richard Silverstein Has Been Had - Again". No permalink but you will find it at the MOA site here: http://www.moonofalabama.org/

This is how it works:

Israel's secret services are known for launching, often false, stories in foreign media. Such "foreign" stories then can be quoted by the Israeli media. ... Despite being launched in foreign media such stories are made up and put out for the domestic Israeli public for self serving and/or political reasons.

Silverstein has been duped.

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My hunch would be that nothing will happen before

traveler's picture

the election, about 90/10 odds. As we have seen over the past 4 years the Obama Administration can continue its threats, warmongering and assaults on civil liberties with relatively little public opposition as compared to what we saw during the Bush - Cheney years.

Those of us who migrated here from orange know this very well.

Therefore it is most likely the PTB, the oligarchy, would be more comfortable with another four years of Obama than with a Republican president. An outbreak of war from an attack on Iran prior to the election could bring unforeseen and undesirable consequences.

Once the election is over it's a new ballgame. The plan remains in place. It could change depending on what the near future brings and the outcome of current efforts such as the destabilization of the region and efforts at regime change in Syria.

The concept originated with the NeoCons in 1996 in their policy paper "A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm". Much has been written about this and doing a search will bring up many interesting opinions and points of view. However, history cannot easily be overcome by propaganda.

Israeli political analyst Daniel Levy described the paper and the influence it would come to yield on future US foreign policy:

"In 1996 a group of then opposition U.S. policy agitators, including Richard Perle and Douglas Feith, presented a paper entitled 'A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm' to incoming Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The 'clean break' was from the prevailing peace process, advocating that Israel pursue a combination of roll-back, destabilization and containment in the region, including striking at Syria and removing Saddam Hussein from power in favor of 'Hashemite control in Iraq.' The Israeli horse they backed then was not up to the task.

Ten years later, as Netanyahu languishes in the opposition, as head of a small Likud faction, Perle, Feith and their neoconservative friends have justifiably earned a reputation as awesome wielders of foreign-policy influence under George W. Bush."

A policy of preemptive wars of aggression had replaced peaceful attempts at resolving differences in this geo-strategically important part of the world.

In early 2007 there was a "redirection". Seymour Hersh described it here: http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/03/05/070305fa_fact_hersh?curren...

In the past few months, as the situation in Iraq has deteriorated, the Bush Administration, in both its public diplomacy and its covert operations, has significantly shifted its Middle East strategy. The “redirection,” as some inside the White House have called the new strategy, has brought the United States closer to an open confrontation with Iran and, in parts of the region, propelled it into a widening sectarian conflict between Shiite and Sunni Muslims.

To undermine Iran, which is predominantly Shiite, the Bush Administration has decided, in effect, to reconfigure its priorities in the Middle East.... The U.S. has also taken part in clandestine operations aimed at Iran and its ally Syria. A by-product of these activities has been the bolstering of Sunni extremist groups that espouse a militant vision of Islam and are hostile to America and sympathetic to Al Qaeda.

The momentum has continued under Obama. We all know about the goal of taking down "7 Countries in 5 years". The planning and timing has been modified to meet political and military realities but there is no sign that the goals have changed. The end justifies the means to those driven by power lust and greed.

No amount of death and human suffering seems to affect them. It's a pity none of these chickenhawks have seen it first hand. If they had then perhaps they would have second thoughts.

Now that it is becoming quite clear the al-Qaeda is being utilized by the US and its allies in efforts to destabilize countries which stand in the way of US - Israeli hegemony might we expect to see a new bogeyman appear upon the scene?

This is being posted as a reply to Chipmo's essay. Should I also post this as an essay or diary or whatever the correct term is here?

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Please republish as an essay

geomoo's picture

This is the sort of step back overview that is so lacking in current discussion, which follows the latest bouncing ball. It is really not difficult to see what they are up to. They said what they were planning to do, and now they are doing it. At the very least, we can discuss it here.

Thanks, traveler.

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